Updated ,first published
There is a pronounced mood for political change in Victoria, with only one in four voters agreeing that Labor deserves another term in office and nearly half the electorate declaring the two-party system at an end.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead over two surveys in May and June, reveals the continued rise of One Nation at the expense of both major parties, with Pauline Hanson’s anti-establishment movement on track to become the most popular political party in Australia’s most politically progressive state.
It shows One Nation’s primary support up 3 percentage points since the last poll to 24 per cent, Labor dropping 1 point to 26 per cent and the Coalition also on 26 per cent, down 3 points.
A breakdown of individual survey results, while based on smaller sample sizes, makes clear One Nation’s trajectory. When the first survey was taken in May, the party was sitting on 20 per cent. By the time of the second survey, conducted last week, primary support for One Nation had surged to 28 per cent – the strongest for any party.
The published results are an average from the two surveys.
Resolve does not calculate a two-party preferred outcome, but senior strategists from Labor and the Coalition privately concede that if these primary vote numbers were replicated at the November election, Victoria would almost certainly be left with a hung parliament.
The implications are mixed for Premier Jacinta Allan, whose leadership is the subject of renewed speculation ahead of a caucus meeting on Tuesday. Although she has avoided the sort of polling disaster that might have sparked an immediate challenge, Labor’s electoral outlook remains dire.
The individual survey results show that Labor’s primary support improved immediately after the May state budget, which contained cost-of-living relief measures such has half-priced public transport and 20 per cent discounts on car registrations, then slumped in last week’s survey amid the latest leadership murmurings.
Allan’s supporters will point to this as the self-fulfilling outcome of a destabilisation campaign waged by a small group of party figures inside and outside parliament. Her detractors – and perhaps some anxious MPs undecided about the leadership question – will see it as evidence that under Allan’s leadership, Labor is heading towards electoral defeat.
The Coalition’s primary support also fell between surveys.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said one take-away was beyond dispute. “One Nation is in the ascendancy, as they are everywhere right now,” he said. “If they keep gaining votes as they are, the sky is the limit.
“In Victoria, people need to start asking questions about who their state leader will be and what their state policies are. At the moment, many are acting like they’re voting for Pauline or against immigration.”
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, a Queensland senator, also serves as the party’s president. She is yet to announce whom she has chosen to lead her party in Victoria. Adam Giles, a former NT chief minister who currently lives in Victoria and oversees some of Gina Rinehart’s business interests, was a notable attendee at a One Nation fundraiser in South Melbourne last week.
Giles said at the weekend that he was not a member of One Nation, hasn’t “got any plans” to join and had “no intention of running” for Victorian parliament.
However, he did not rule out a leadership role if approached.
“I’d consider it. I’m not saying yes, but if it was on a voluntary, part-time basis, I’d consider it,” he said.
Hanson told Friday night’s fundraiser that One Nation would be willing to partner the Victorian Coalition in government. Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett has urged his party to embrace this idea. Opposition leader Jess Wilson, when asked over the weekend whether she would work with One Nation, did not rule out the possibility.
One of the most remarkable figures within the Resolve research is the percentage of people intending to vote Labor who no longer believe the government should be re-elected. When asked whether the Allan Labor government deserves another term, 31 per cent of Labor voters disagreed.
The question also confirmed the strength of anti-government sentiment among One Nation voters. Just 4 per cent agreed Labor deserved another four years.
The flipside of this question – whether the Wilson-led opposition is capable of governing – produced an encouraging response for the Liberal and National coalition. A total of 46 per cent of respondents agreed, while 35 per cent disagreed.
Reed said the results reflected a clear mood for a change in government in Victoria. He compared the results to the voter sentiment which accompanied the final term of the last, long-serving Labor government in NSW, when the party churned through leaders but was unable to avoid an electoral drubbing.
“It is an end-of-days feeling we last saw before the 2011 NSW election where Labor had just had too long in power,” Reed said. “I don’t think a leadership change would make that much difference at this stage.
“The question is whether One Nation and the Liberal Party share the spoils, or one gains the upper hand before November. Many people will vote for whoever they think will win and bring about change.”
Speaking before the poll’s release on Monday morning, Allan said she did not expect a leadership challenge on Tuesday, and that nobody in her party room – including her deputy leader and most likely replacement, Ben Carroll – had spoken to her about stepping down.
“I have a strong united Labor team. We’re united by a shared sense of values and working damn hard every single day for the communities we represent,” the premier said.
Carroll told the same press conference that he would not try to roll the premier on Tuesday, but declined to rule out aspiring to become premier, saying only that had he had “got the job I want”.
“I’ve always aspired to be the education minister. We have a premier and she’s working harder than anyone every day,” he said. “I want to serve Jacinta Allan.”
Allan said in an exclusive interview with The Age on Saturday that the surge in support for One Nation, and the prospect of a state coalition between the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation in Victoria, was worrying.
“What concerns me is what that would mean for our society, our community and our economy,” she said.
“I think One Nation are a risk to working people and families everywhere.”
The twin Resolve surveys of 1100 voters also asked whether the two-party system, a political duopoly which has determined Victoria’s parliamentary representation since the end of the World War II, was over. Just 13 per cent disagreed with this proposition.
The poll results suggest that, as Victoria heads towards a volatile and unpredictable state election on November 28, some things are baked in. Allan’s approval rating appears entrenched, with the mark slipping back to minus 35, where it was at the start of the year. Wilson is broadly liked by voters, with a positive approval rating of 15, albeit also a worse result than last survey.
On Sunday Wilson addressed a “scrap the tax” rally – organised by opponents of the rebadged emergency services and volunteers levy on property owners introduced at the start of the current financial year – in Allan’s home town of Bendigo.
Wilson has promised to abolish the levy and revert to previous tax arrangements if she leads the next government. Allan is facing a fierce contest from the Nationals and One Nation to retain her seat of Bendigo East, which she has held since 1999. Wilson said the Liberals would also stand a candidate.
The premier, who replaced the retiring Daniel Andrews in September 2023, must also overcome significant historical barriers for Labor to stay in power. No Labor government in Victoria has won four successive terms. Labor has never won an election after changing leaders, as Joan Kirner and John Brumby were both voted out of office in the previous two attempts.
Allan and Wilson are both vying to become the first female leader to win a state election in Victoria.
From next month, as part of this masthead’s expanded coverage of state politics in the lead-up to the state election, Resolve Political Monitor will double its monthly survey sample of Victorian voters.
This will enable The Age to publish, on a monthly basis, voting intentions and responses to additional questions designed to improve our understanding of the issues that matter most to this state.
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Chip Le Grand leads our state politics reporting team. He previously served as the paper’s chief reporter and is a journalist of 30 years’ experience.Connect via email.
Patrick Hatch is transport reporter at The Age and a former business reporter.Connect via X or email.
