Voter support for One Nation at a state level in Queensland has hit a new high-water mark, the party drawing level with the Labor opposition as former premier Steven Miles’ standing takes a further dive.
The second seven percentage-point surge for Pauline Hanson’s political project this year, taking its primary vote support to 24 per cent, comes as David Crisafulli and the LNP remain steady favourites.
Detailed in the latest two-month polling snapshot for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, the result is a late echo of One Nation’s recent ascendance across Australia – without having any state MPs here.
Primary support for the party in Hanson’s home state has passed the 22.6 per cent result achieved at her breakthrough 1998 Queensland election, which took the party from zero to 11 seats.
Meanwhile, Labor’s share of the polled vote has fallen four percentage points – now equal to One Nation on 24 per cent – and Miles’ personal rating dropped 10 percentage points to negative 11.
The opposition leader’s standing as preferred premier has also fallen to its lowest point in polling for this masthead, with just 20 per cent favouring Miles and a steady 44 per cent supporting Crisafulli.
Labor’s primary vote now sits lower than it did in 2012, when it was reduced to just seven seats.
The LNP’s primary vote held at 30 per cent. A new high of 46 per cent of voters preferenced a minor party or independent first.
“Steven Miles is playing a part in Labor’s woes,” Reid said. “Not all voters are with the major parties any more, but they certainly prefer Crisafulli to lead still.”
Reid said One Nation had made gains across all demographic groups. While its supporters skewed older and more regional or suburban, it was now “a movement with much broader appeal”.
“The idea that this is some sort of old, white male protest vote has been blown out of the water,” he said.
“When we speak to swinging voters around the country it’s very clear that state voting intention is being influenced by Hanson, [Barnaby] Joyce and their stances on things like immigration and net zero.
“These are all federal figures and policies, so it remains to be seen whether they translate into real votes in a few years’ time.”
The party’s Queensland website has had few recent updates, beyond sporadic media releases from Hanson’s chief of staff James Ashby, the 2024 state election candidate for Keppel.
In a section detailing “The One Nation Team”, the party still refers to Stephen Andrew as its MP for the state seat of Mirani. Andrew was dumped from the party by Hanson before the 2024 election.
At the 1998 election, One Nation took seats across the state, including large regional electorates, but also the south-east rural and suburban fringe seats of Ipswich West and Caboolture.
Through resignations and expulsions, none of One Nation’s 11 state MPs elected in 1998 were still with the party by the next election.
The next state election is not due to be held until late October 2028. While Crisafulli pledged during the last campaign to return optional preferential voting, the change is yet to be enacted.
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Matt Dennien is a reporter at Brisbane Times covering state politics, parliament and the public sector. He has previously worked for newspapers in Tasmania and Brisbane community radio station 4ZZZ. Contact him securely on Signal @mattdennien.15Connect via email.
