Stan Choe
Updated ,first published
The US stock market is wavering after several officials at the Federal Reserve indicated they may raise interest rates before the end of the year.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6 per cent and erased an earlier, modest gain after the Fed released projections showing policymakers see the federal funds rate ending this year and the next two at higher levels than they had been forecasting a few months ago. Higher interest rates can keep a lid on inflation, but they also slow the economy and hurt prices for investments.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a gain of 281 points before the Fed’s announcement to a dip of 86 points, or 0.2 per cent. The Nasdaq composite slipped 0.6 per cent. The Australian sharemarket is set for a flat start, with futures pointing to a dip of 34 points, or 0.4 per cent, at the open. The ASX added 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. The Australian dollar was trading lower at US70.10¢.
New quarterly projections showed nine Fed officials now anticipate a hike in rates by the end of 2026, and an updated policy statement removed language that had been used to flag the likelihood of further reductions in borrowing costs this year. Indeed, the statement, in an early sign of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s influence, removed any guidance about future rate moves altogether, with a revised format that simply stated the rate decision and reaffirmed the central bank’s intent to keep “ample reserves in the banking system.”
The shortened document, a return to a format similar to that used by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, was approved by a unanimous 12-0 vote by the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee.
Speaking in a press conference following the FOMC meeting, Warsh said the policy statement refrained from providing so-called forward guidance because it is not “well suited” to the current economic moment. When it comes to the monetary policy outlook, “I can’t give you any forward guidance about what we’re going to do next. The good news is we’ll be meeting in six weeks.”
In the bond market, Treasury yields rose after nine of 18 policymakers at the Fed said they are projecting at least one increase to the federal funds rate by the end of this year. One policymaker did not submit a forecast following the first meeting by the Fed since Kevin Warsh took over as chair.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences rates for mortgages and other loans going to US households and businesses, rose to 4.45 per cent from 4.43 per cent late Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, jumped more. It climbed to 4.14 per cent from 4.05 per cent.
High yields in bond markets worldwide caused by worries about inflation have been threatening to slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments.
In the stock market, SpaceX erased an early gain and dropped 2.4 per cent. It’s potentially on track for its first loss since its ballyhooed debut on the US stock market last week.
That helped overshadow a jump of 19.1 per cent for La-Z-Boy, which reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It benefited from revenue made at newly opened stores, though Chief Financial Officer Taylor Luebke said the company continues to have “a measured view” of the broad sales environment.
A report released on Wednesday said retailers across the country saw their revenue grow at a faster pace in May than economists expected, offering hope that solid spending by consumers can support the economy. But high inflation has also made US shoppers feel more discouraged about their finances.
Iran is set to immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the deal is signed, and that would allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf once again and deliver crude to customers worldwide. The hope is that will take pressure off inflation.
Oil prices were steadier Wednesday following sharp slides earlier in the week on optimism about the tentative US-Iran deal to get the global flow of oil going again. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil rose 0.5 per cent to $US79.35. It’s still above its roughly $US70 price from before the war, but it’s well below its $US100-plus price from a few weeks ago.
Iran is set to immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the deal is signed, and that would allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf once again and deliver crude to customers worldwide. The hope is that will take pressure off inflation.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia.
London’s FTSE 100 added 0.1 per cent after a report showed U.K. inflation remained at 2.8 per cent in May.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.6 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7 per cent for two of the world’s bigger moves.
AP, Reuters
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