Cyclone Narelle could intensify into a category 5 storm before it pummels the Far North Queensland coast, as the weather bureau predicts it could hit as early as Thursday night.
Senior meteorologist Christie Johnson said the cyclone had been named hours earlier than originally forecast.
“This time yesterday morning, I was talking about it intensifying overnight into a category 1, and instead it was a category 1 by late afternoon yesterday, and intensified into a category 2 overnight,” she said.
“It looks like it is going to take a pretty westerly track and will continue to intensify.”
A warning from the weather bureau issued before 5am on Wednesday said the storm was recorded with winds up to 110km/h, gusting up to 155km/h.
It remained about 1050 kilometres west of the Australian coastline mid-morning on Wednesday.
Johnson said there was an 80 to 90 per cent chance Cyclone Narelle would remain intact across the coastline, and the weather bureau was reasonably confident the system would strengthen within days.
“I would be very surprised if it was able to weaken, given the environment that it’s in,” she said.
“It may weaken slightly as it approaches the coast and hit as a category 3, or there’s actually even a possibility – if it spends a bit longer out over the water – that it could even get to a high-end category 4 or possibly even approaching category 5.”
The weather bureau narrowed down Cyclone Narelle’s potential strike zone to a stretch of coastline between Cooktown and Coen of about 260 kilometres.
Communities near the centre of the storm were warned gusts up to 200km/h were possible as the storm made landfall.
Damaging gusts were expected between the Port Douglas and Lockhart River regions across Thursday, while coastal towns between Coen and Cooktown were warned of gusts up to 155km/h on Thursday night.
Modelling had earlier indicated the cyclone could “wobble a bit” as it approached the coast, but Johnson said uncertainty in the system’s track now centred on its path from east to west, which would affect how quickly the storm moved to the coastline.
“Our modelling that’s come in overnight has slowed it a little bit, so it’s pushing it more towards it being well into Friday,” Johnson said.
“The earliest that we’d be expecting it might reach the coast would be Thursday afternoon or evening.
“Of course, we’ll start to see impacts before it actually reaches the coast.”
She said the storm would probably only be over land for 12 hours, and could push thunderstorms down the Queensland coast as far as Ingham and northern parts of Townsville.
The rain could impact sodden parts of Queensland further inland already suffering floods, Johnson said.
