In the arid heart of the Arabian Peninsula, where scorching temperatures and negligible rainfall define the landscape, water is not merely a resource; it is the linchpin of survival.
The six member states of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman – rely overwhelmingly on desalination plants converting seawater to quench their thirst. Yet, as the conflict with Iran escalates, this infrastructure emerges as a glaring strategic vulnerability, potentially more important than the region’s oil and gas fields, refineries and export terminals.
Iran’s ability to strike the GCC’s desalination plants, whether with missiles, drones, small boat swarms or cyberattacks, poses an existential threat to these six Arab states. Iran draws most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and aquifers, and so could endure disruptions to its limited desalination operations. But the GCC states could face rapid societal collapse without theirs.
Key US ally Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer of desalinated water, best exemplifies the stakes. Estimates suggest the country could survive only seven to 14 days on supplies if its main plant in Riyadh was destroyed.
