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Gold’s sharp selloff may have pushed the metal firmly into bear market territory, but some market veterans are sticking to ambitious long-term forecasts.
Bullion extended its slide Tuesday, with spot prices falling as much as 2% before trimming losses to trade down 1.5% at $4,335.97 an ounce. Futures dropped about 2% to $4,317.80, while silver also declined.
The move leaves gold — down roughly 21% from its late-January peak of $5,594.82 — firmly in a bear market.
For many strategists, the recent slump reflects short-term dislocations rather than any shift in gold’s underlying fundamentals. Persistent geopolitical risks, strong central bank demand and the prospect of a weaker U.S. dollar continue to underpin a structural bull case for the metal. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven by investors during times of instability.
“We are sticking with $10,000 by the end of the decade,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research told CNBC via email, even as he lowered his year-end forecast to $5,000 per ounce from $6,000 — which is still up around 15% from current levels.
The latest leg lower came as investors unwound positions amid a stronger U.S. dollar and tentative signs of easing geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he had ordered a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The U.S. dollar has been strengthening, which might have triggered profit-taking in gold, said market participants.
Gold prices since the start of the year.
The dollar index has strengthened around 3% since the start of the war on Feb. 28.
Despite the near-term weakness, strategists broadly view the selloff as an opportunity rather than a turning point.
Justin Lin, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, said his base case for gold remains $6,000 per ounce by year-end, describing the recent drop as “a compelling entry point for investors.”
“The sell-off appears driven by a combination of short-term sensitivity to higher interest rates, portfolio rebalancing amid equity market weakness, and a degree of complacency around the ongoing conflict in Iran,” Lin said via email.
Crucially, Lin emphasized that his bullish outlook does not depend on war-related risk premia.
“Rather, it is built upon the broader backdrop of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank demand, and sustained inflows from Asian gold ETF investors,” he said.
That structural demand, particularly from emerging market central banks seeking to diversify reserves, is expected to provide a floor under prices. Lin added that there is a “high likelihood” central banks step up purchases following the recent selloff, helping stabilize the market.
Standard Chartered also remains constructive, citing similar long-term drivers.
“We remain constructive on gold over the longer term, underpinned by structural factors, including strong Emerging Market central bank demand and investor diversification amid geopolitical risks,” said the bank’s Senior Investment Strategist Rajat Bhattacharya, in an email to CNBC.
The bank expects gold to rebound toward $5,375 per ounce over the next three months once the current phase of deleveraging subsides, with technical support seen around $4,100.
A key catalyst for a recovery could be a weaker U.S. dollar, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates.
“A weaker U.S. dollar should once again support gold prices,” Bhattacharya said.
