Jet fuel shortages threaten to disrupt summer travel as the loss of supplies from the Middle East ripples across Asia and Europe.
Exports from the Persian Gulf represented the largest single source of jet fuel supply to the global market before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, according to the International Energy Agency.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off those jet fuel exports from the world. Europe is directly affected because the continent was the biggest importer of Middle Eastern fuel supplies. About 20% of the continent’s jet fuel came from the Gulf, according to the IEA.
The other major source of jet fuel exports to world markets are refineries in China, South Korea and India. But these refineries themselves rely heavily on crude oil from the Middle East. About 90% of the oil exported from the Gulf through the strait went to Asia before the war.
Refineries in Asia are struggling to meet domestic and international demand for jet fuel due to the loss of crude oil feedstocks, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.
“It’s a slow motion car crash,” Smith told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “We’re just kind of sleepwalking through it.”
Global jet fuel exports plunged 30% to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 1.9 million bpd in the same month last year, according to data from Kpler. Jet fuel loaded on tankers last week plunged 50% to 18.6 million barrels down from 37.8 million barrels in the same week in 2025, the data showed.
“Jet is incredibly short,” Valero Energy Chief Operating Officer Gary Simmons told investors on the refiner’s April 30 earnings call. Valero is one of the biggest independent refiners in the U.S.
Warnings in Europe
The European Union will face a “systemic jet fuel shortage” if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, the trade group Airports Council International Europe warned the 27-nation economic union in an April 9 letter.
Surging jet fuel prices have already forced major airlines to cut flights. Lufthansa, one of the biggest carriers in Europe, slashed 20,000 short-haul flights through October due in part to fuel costs.
Jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe over the past year to $187 per barrel as of May 1, according to the International Air Transport Association.
There was “no evidence of actual shortages in Europe” as of April 21 but commercial jet fuel stocks are under pressure, European Commissioner for Transport Apostolos Tzitzikostas told reporters at a press conference at the time.
The airports association warned in its April 9 letter that fuel shortages would hit Europe if exports through the Strait of Hormuz do not resume in a “significant and stable way” within three weeks. Oil flows did not normalize in April and they are unlikely to do so quickly even if the conflict ends.
“It’s going to take weeks and probably into months,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC Monday at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles.
The strait needs to be checked for mines which will take time, Wirth said. Hundreds of ships also need to exit the Gulf and be redeployed around the world to normalize supply chains, he said.
Grace period is over
Fuel shortages will become a growing concern over the next several weeks, Wirth told CNBC. “The price signals in some of these places have been quite extreme and what they’re really running into now is a concern about supply,” the CEO said.
The market had a grace period as tankers that departed the Persian Gulf just before the war arrived at their destinations in March and April to deliver oil and refined products, said Andrew O’Brien, chief financial officer at ConocoPhillips, the third-biggest U.S. oil company after ExxonMobil and Chevron.
The respite is coming to an end now that the pre-war shipments have all arrived, O’Brien told investors on Conoco’s April 30 earnings call.
The market has also relied on commercial inventories of crude oil and refined products to ease the impact of the supply disruption but those stocks will eventually draw down to working minimums, said Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods in a Friday interview with CNBC.
The impact on the world economy of the oil supply disruption in the Middle East will now start to become more apparent, O’Brien said. Some countries that depend on energy imports could face critical shortages by June or July, he said, without naming a specific nation or region.
U.S. refiners boost exports
The EU is working to secure alternative jet fuel supplies, particularly from the United States, the transport commissioner Tzitzikostas said last month.
U.S. refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum have sought to maximize jet fuel production in response to global demand. U.S. exports usually go to Latin America but deliveries to Europe surged more than 400% to 94,000 bpd in April compared to February when the war started, according to Kpler data.
Valero boosted jet fuel to 30% of its total distillate production in March, up from the typical 26%, Simmons, the chief operating officer said. It plans to start producing jet fuel at a couple of refineries that don’t currently make the fuel, the executive said.
Marathon Petroleum increased its jet fuel production capacity by 30,000 bpd at its Garyville, Louisiana refinery in March, CEO Maryann Mannen told investors Tuesday on the company’s earnings call.
The U.S. is more insulated from the threat of fuel shortages than Asia and Europe due to its robust domestic production. But even there, the West Coast, particularly California, could see some supply challenges.
The West Coast imported 93,000 bpd of jet fuel in 2025 with more than 80% coming from South Korea, according to the Energy Information Administration. Those Korean refineries have lost crucial oil supplies from the Middle East which could hurt exports to the U.S. West Coast.
“It is a series of dominoes that are falling here,” Kpler’s Smith said. “Jet is the first one to go. Asia is the first region, but it’s going to spread across the globe, and it’s also going to spread across the products.”
