Carlton’s season is only three matches old, but already it carries a familiar, creeping tension — the kind that settles when a team isn’t just losing, but losing the same way.
Three games into the final year of Michael Voss’ contract, the Blues sit at 1–2. On the surface, it is hardly terminal. Underneath, it is far more revealing.
A more accurate Tom Lynch in round 1 would have the Blues 0-3 and heading into what could be a very bad Friday against North Melbourne.
Each game has followed the same script.
Carlton begin games like contenders — powerful, organised, in control. Then, after half-time, it unravels. Leads surrendered. Momentum lost. Games slipping, almost predictably, from their grasp.
There is a growing sense among rival clubs that Carlton’s issue is no longer about personnel or even early season inconsistency. It is about whether what Voss is building can stand up for four quarters — and, more broadly, across a season that was supposed to consolidate the club’s return to contention with a revamped list.
That is where pressure shifts from background noise to something more consequential.
If the Blues were to make a move mid-season — and that remains a significant if — the talk in industry circles is they would not need to look beyond their own walls.
Adam Simpson is already there.
When Simpson arrived at Ikon Park as a part-time coaching mentor and consultant, the club framed the role carefully.
Football boss Chris Davies described him as an “objective eye”, someone who would sit “well and truly behind the scenes” and avoid “groupthink” by remaining removed from the day-to-day coaching environment.
It was a support role. One day a week, at most. A resource for Voss, not a shadow.
But in a results-based industry, context shifts quickly.
Simpson is a premiership coach, a system builder and someone who understands the demands of leading a club with expectation.
He is also, crucially, already inside the football department.
That is what fuels the external view that, if required, Carlton would not need to conduct an extensive search.
But the reality may not be quite so straightforward.
Those familiar with Simpson’s situation suggest he is only an irregular presence at Carlton — measured in days rather than weeks, offering perspective rather than direction.
More broadly, there is a recognition that he has only recently stepped away from the senior coaching grind. The demands, the hours, the all-encompassing nature of the role are not easily re-entered — particularly at short notice, and particularly mid-season.
Some observers also believe Simpson would be reluctant to replace a man he’s been mentoring.
If Voss were to last the season and his contract wasn’t renewed, would that change things for Simpson?
Perhaps, but ex-coaches spend a long time contemplating how dangerous it would be to go back. Just ask Nathan Buckley.
Which leaves Carlton in an intriguing, and potentially awkward, position.
The club has, on one hand, a coach under immense pressure and out of contract.
On the other, there is a highly credentialed former senior coach within arm’s reach — but not necessarily positioned, or inclined, to step into the role under those circumstances.
Carlton did not set out to create a succession plan. But it has, at the very least, created a decision point.
For Voss, the equation is simple.
It is not about proving Carlton can be good. They have shown that, repeatedly, for long stretches.
It is about proving they can be complete. At the moment, they’re not.
In a season that was meant to cement the club’s place among the AFL’s contenders, that is the kind of flaw that invites scrutiny.
There is still time to correct it. But in the modern game, time moves quickly.
At Carlton, even the hypotheticals are complicated.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
Sam McClure is an award-winning AFL journalist and broadcaster.Connect via X or email.
