In modern rugby, the No.9 has usurped the No.10 in importance.
A change in how the game has been played in the past 10 years means the No.9 is now more like the halfback in rugby league – the player who makes most of the decisions and directs his team around the field.
One statistic illustrates this: according to Opta, Brumbies No.9 Ryan Lonergan has made 401 passes in the opening six rounds of the season; No.10 Declan Meredith has made 74.
Despite the chat over the past week, Meredith won’t be the Wallabies’ No.10 this year, for several reasons. It’s relatively obvious that Carter Gordon, Noah Lolesio and Tom Lynagh will be the top three – and one reason is that Meredith is very much the back-seat driver in Canberra.
That’s not a slight on Meredith, who has been excellent value for the Brumbies, but the game has shifted away from the No.10, even if public perception hasn’t quite kept up.
Who is the All Blacks’ most important player? Cameron Roigard. France? Antoine Dupont. Ireland? Jamison Gibson-Park. And on it goes.
Yes, you get the occasional freak, such as South Africa’s Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Scotland’s Finn Russell, but even when you take a hard look at the Scots it is evident that halfback Ben White does a lot of the key kicking.
The shift is blatantly obvious in Super Rugby, too. Beauden Barrett and Ben Donaldson are the only two specialist No.10s in the top 15 for try assists on a table dominated by halfbacks. In fact, a fullback is more likely than a No.10 to create a try in Super Rugby Pacific this year.
To burden you with even more evidence, think back to the events that precipitated the wheels coming off the Wallabies last year: the retirement of Nic White and the bad hamstring injury suffered by Tate McDermott.
With that in mind, the duel between Lonergan and Jake Gordon on Friday night is comfortably the most important individual match-up across the four Australian teams in action this weekend.
As referenced earlier, the No.10 debate is almost done and dusted in my mind. Away from the spotlight, Lolesio has bounced back remarkably well from his horrible injury scare last year. He has guided Japanese side Shuttles Aichi into a promotion spot in the second tier domestic competition, and the change of scenery would have been good for him.
As a big-name import – Springboks No.10 Manie Libbok plays a similar role for division two table toppers Kintetsu Liners – Lolesio will also occupy a leadership role and there is every chance he will become a more rounded player during his time in Japan.
Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt and his replacement Les Kiss have already shown their hands with Carter Gordon and Lynagh, so that trio is well set to play a prominent role in the Wallabies’ campaign this year.
But the halfback position appears far less settled, and this is critically important because the leading contenders all play such different games.
On one hand, Lonergan is streets ahead. He has grabbed the Brumbies by the scruff of the neck this year and is in the best form of his career.
This week, Andrew Johns commented on the career stage of Penrith halfback Nathan Cleary, a comment that also applies to Lonergan. To paraphrase Johns, Cleary, now 28, had seen enough defensive structures that he is now watching the game in slow motion.
Lonergan is now 27, and he is doing exactly the same. It really is now or never for his Wallabies aspirations.
But – and there is often a but – one area of Lonergan’s game is holding him back: he has made 33 successful tackles this year but missed 21. Gordon has made 27 tackles and missed just three.
You don’t pick a Wallabies halfback on defence alone, but Lonergan’s missed tackle statistics are high.
It’s an area where the pugnacious White and the tough McDermott often punched above their weight, and Test rivals will ruthlessly target Lonergan around the ruck unless he can deliver significant improvements.
By comparison, Gordon’s excellent defensive work makes him the safer option in the Wallabies No.9 jersey, with Dermott’s performances off the bench last year indicating he can be world class in that role, even with a 6-2 split of forward and back replacements.
So, Gordon would be a more reliable option. Case closed? Not quite if we return to the initial point.
The No.9 is now the chief playmaker in modern rugby. They must be the player who creates the line breaks and the tries, as well as winning the territory battle.
Lonergan is filling that role superbly for the Brumbies, so Schmidt and Kiss have an exceptionally difficult call to make. Do they pick a No.9 for attack or defence, because they probably can’t have both.
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Paul Cully is a rugby columnist for The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.
