Opinion
Donald Trump has invented a radical opposite to the fog of war: the fog of peace.
One week ago, the US president intensified the trajectory of the Iran war that had no end in sight. Suddenly, Trump announced on his Truth Social platform: “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS,” he would order the obliteration of its power plants, bringing the country to its knees.
Last Monday, with only hours to spare, Trump blinked. “THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.” The promised attacks, he said, were being paused to allow such talks to be prosecuted.
The fog of war, propounded by Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz, enshrouds military battle with uncertainty and confusion, which can drive unintended outcomes. In Tehran, 175 people, mostly schoolchildren, were killed by a US Tomahawk missile in the first hours of the war. A friendly fire barrage from Kuwait downed three US jets.
The utterances from Trump’s mouth contradict what our eyes are seeing and our ears are hearing. In Trump’s fog of peace, we do not know what is real. How can he declare the war has been won while it continues and Tehran denies peace talks are under way? How can Trump emphatically declare there has been regime change in Iran when no alternative leaders have wrested control of the government from those who survived assassination and retained power? If Trump has completely destroyed Iran’s military, why are rockets still streaming down on Israel with deadly impact?
If Trump says he does not want a wider war by putting “boots on the ground” – presumably to take over Kharg Island and find and remove Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium buried under Natanz – why has he ordered the deployment of marines and army paratroopers to head to the Persian Gulf?
Trump is veiled in his fog of peace with his rambling statements to reporters. How could Trump possibly say he was surprised that Iran attacked the Gulf nations aligned with the US and that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz when he was briefed on exactly these prospects by General Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff?
Trump appears to be negotiating with Iranians who cannot deliver on the promises that he says they are making. How can he say that has agreed to several conditions to end the war when Iran has consistently rejected Trump’s terms: that Iran agrees never to have a nuclear weapon, that it will end enrichment and turn over to the US its radioactive nuclear stockpile and that Trump gets some authority over controlling shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is reportedly demanding the US close its military bases in the region, pay Iran reparations for the war, allow it to collect transit fees in the strait, and force Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.
While Trump says Iran is “begging” to do a deal, and Pakistan is mediating indirect talks, the Pentagon is preparing a “final blow” with troops and bombing as the US president warns Iran to “get serious” before it is “too late”. Now he’s extended that deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by a further 10 days, to April 6.
The commander-in-chief keeps saying things that don’t add up. All the contradictions and unresolved questions of the fog of peace between Iran and the US will continue until Iran capitulates or Trump refuses to accede to its demands – and continues his war of choice with full “Operation Epic Fury”.
Trump’s advisers cannot be blind that the war is killing him politically and must be ended. With fuel prices surging, Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low of 36 per cent. A significant majority of Americans say the war has gone too far. As Democrats flip seats in local elections around the country – two such state seats went Democratic in Trump’s Florida this week, including one that contains his home, Mar-a-Lago – Republicans in Congress fear they are dead in the midterm elections. But no Republicans of true stature are standing up and breaking with Trump over his prosecution of this war.
The fog of war means war. Trump’s fog of peace could also mean relentless war.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
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Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
