Is the iPhone to blame for our big baby bust? What to know about Australia’s record-low fertility rate

The average number of children born to Australian women has hit rock bottom.

The latest figures show Australians had 23,000 fewer babies in 2024 than in 2018 – even though the total population rose by about two million during that time.

What does Australia’s baby bust mean for us? Here’s what to know.Marija Ercegovac

The nation’s fertility rate – the expected number of births per woman – last peaked in 2008 at 2.02, but it has since fallen by 25 per cent to a record low of 1.48 in 2024. So far, the effects of lower fertility have been offset by migration, but it will affect our society and economy in the long term.

So what’s going on, and should we be worried? This masthead has published a series of stories exploring the reasons for Australia’s baby bust, and what it might mean for the future.

Here are seven key takeaways.

Mothers younger than 35 are increasingly rare

Exclusive polling for this masthead by the Resolve Political Monitor found 50 per cent of those aged 25 to 35 have never had children. While most under-45s (68 per cent) say they have or will have children, the share opting for one child is on the rise. Demand for egg freezing and IVF treatments has risen – but it’s not a large-scale solution. It also does not solve the social, economic and systemic challenges underlying the trend of delayed childbearing.

So are teenage pregnancies

Teenage pregnancies are declining. According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, mothers who gave birth under 20 accounted for 1.6 per cent of all mothers in 2023. In 2010, at 3.8 per cent, that proportion was more than double.

Australia progressively decriminalised abortion from 2002, but this decrease in under-20s giving birth has been attributed to the rising popularity and accessibility of long-term contraception rather than an increase in terminations.

It’s a win for reproductive freedom – teenage motherhood is associated with poorer health and wellbeing outcomes for both mother and child, and can lead to intergenerational cycles of ill health and poverty. A La Trobe University study published in May, however, found Australia’s sexual health education is not fit for purpose. Condom use among Australian teenagers is at a 30-year low, contributing to rising rates of sexually transmitted infections.

Middle children are out of style

The Resolve Political Monitor polling found only 9 per cent of those aged 18 to 45 have three or more children; that’s compared with 27 per cent for those aged over 45. Meanwhile, single-child families are becoming more common – 25 per cent of those aged 35 to 45 reported having one child, 10 percentage points higher than those aged over 45. The separate Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, which questions a sample of 17,000 people over the course of their lifetime, shows the “preference for small families” or no children has risen markedly over the past 20 years.

Technology may have hindered more than helped

When NSW South Coast mum-of-five Steph Powell announced she was expecting her youngest son, she found herself having to laugh off this joke: “Don’t you own a TV?” She does, but the critics may be on to something.

A study conducted by the University of Cincinnati has been generating quite a bit of buzz worldwide since it was published in May. Researchers Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso Boedo linked the decline in teen fertility rates to the advent of the modern smartphone, arguing the number of births fell fastest in the areas of the United States and Britain that received high-speed mobile connectivity earliest. Another study, published this week, said the rise of the iPhone can explain 33 to 52 per cent of the decline in births among American women aged 15 to 44.

Smartphones have sharply reduced in-person socialising among young people. We certainly are seeing the impact of the lost art of the approach – on display more than ever before as fed-up singles break up with “gamified” dating apps – and porn, but there is one thing we must note.

Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone in 2007 – just before the Global Financial Crisis, which effectively ended a decade of steady or rising fertility rates in Australia. As this series has explored, raising a child today costs as much as a small mortgage. And 42 per cent of Resolve Political Monitor poll respondents cited cost as a reason they chose not to have children.

Our dictionaries need updating

Language matters. People who choose not to have children are “childfree”, but people who do not have children, against their will, are “childless”. “Only child” implies an incomplete family, “single-child” or “one-child” families focus on numbers. Even quirky terms have more profound meanings. The so-called “cluck gap”, identified in 2024 data from the Pew Research Centre, found 57 per cent of men aged 18 to 35 wanted children compared with 45 per cent of similar-aged women. Experts put that difference down to the “impossible” ask on mothers. “Beanpole families” – a family line that’s long and thin, with few aunts, uncles, and cousins – means more resources can be focused on fewer children, but as the older generation ages, there are fewer children to tap.

Mental health support is more crucial than ever

Exclusive Resolve Political Monitor polling for this masthead revealed 22 per cent of people who are childfree chose not to have children due to a physical or mental health issue they do not want to trigger or pass on, and 13 per cent of parents who chose to have one child are not having more children for the same reason.

In May, the Parenting Today survey found almost 60 per cent of Australian parents are experiencing psychological distress, with flow-on effects to their children. The results came from the Parenting Research Centre’s August survey of more than 10,000 Australian parents, the nation’s largest.

In March, a world-first analysis from a team of Australian researchers found suicide, accidental poisoning and undetermined intent account for 26 per cent of maternal deaths within the first year after childbirth, and 22 per cent within five years. A study published in The Lancet in May found one in 15 women are affected by major depressive disorder in the year after childbirth, and one in 16 during pregnancy, worldwide.

Australia’s baby bust is part of a bigger global story

Birth rates are falling just about everywhere. Two-thirds of the world’s 195 countries have a “replacement” level below the 2.1 needed to replenish the population from one generation to the next without migration. And that includes Asia’s twin population giants, China and India. In parts of Asia and Europe, very low birth numbers have triggered warnings of a “demographic winter” as the number of working-age taxpayers shrinks. Unless the trend is reversed, some governments will face new and potentially severe social, political and economic disruptions.

But there is some good news for Australia – our openness to migration will help us deal with the challenge. Immigration might be hotly debated globally, but a recent study published in The Lancet concluded that immigration-friendly nations including Australia, Canada and the United States will be able to “sustain their working-age populations” over the long term, and assist them to “fare well” economically relative to others as this century unfolds.

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