Three supertankers from Saudi Arabia loaded with 6 million barrels of oil have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the global trade intelligence firm Kpler.
The Saudi tankers switched their transponders on Thursday in the Gulf of Oman after hiding their location for more than two months. The crossings come after President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a deal Wednesday that is supposed to reopen Hormuz.
Ship traffic through Hormuz, however, has not increased significantly in the hours since the deal was signed. More than 100 ships, dozens of which were tankers, transited the strait daily before the Iran war.
“The floodgates haven’t opened, there is no mass exodus as yet,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. Shippers still appear hesitant to cross Hormuz, Smith said.
The Saudi tankers are very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, that can each carry up to around 2 million barrels of oil. The Shaden is sailing to Kiire, Japan and the Awtad is en route to Ulsan, South Korea, according to Kpler. The Jaham’s destination is not clear yet.
At least five Iranian ships have crossed the U.S. blockade line since June 16, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Three of those vessels were state-owned oil tankers that exited the Gulf of Oman.
Kpler estimates that 118 tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf could exit thorugh Hormuz within 15 days once the shipping industry is confident in the Iran deal. A dozen tankers might enter the Gulf daily to fetch oil within 30 days of the deal which is still well below prewar levels, according to Kpler’s forecast.
The Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded its threat assessment for Hormuz to “substantial” from “severe” this week. The center is a U.S.-led maritime security organization headquartered in Bahrain that coordinates among allied navies and merchant ships in the Middle East.
The JMIC cautioned shippers that attacks in Hormuz are still a “strong possibility” and mines in the sea lane remain a threat. However, it noted the behavior of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard “has become less volatile” since Washington and Tehran announced their deal.
