The assessment of Wallabies assistant coach Laurie Fisher that Australian teams have a tendency to “blow hot and cold” was damning but accurately set the scene before their Nations Championship Tests against Ireland, France and Italy.
A hot Wallabies side could win two of those Tests, possibly all three, and the cold Wallabies could go 0-3.
Two out of three would be more hot than cold, and also enough to suggest they are moving in the right direction when it comes to consistency.
A clean sweep would exceed expectations, as those expectations need to be revised. Media reports out of France suggest that Les Bleus are indeed going to send a strong team including Antoine Dupont for the Test against the Wallabies, as per Rugby Australia chief executive Phil Waugh’s assertion.
Waugh’s claims looked optimistic based on France’s years-long practice of sending weakened squads, but he was right. If Dupont and some other Toulousains (including Manny Meafou) get through the Top 14 final this weekend, the French team will be coming to Brisbane at close to full strength.
That’s both a wonderful and daunting prospect for the Wallabies, but it can’t be forgotten that the Wallabies were very good for two-and-a-half Tests against the British and Irish Lions at this point last year.
The timing matters. The fatigue shown by the squad during the end-of-year tour was tangible, so you would expect their energy levels to be far more similar to those shown against the Lions in Melbourne and Sydney in 2025.
If they can reach those intensity levels in July, and find an answer to the pressing question at No.10, they can beat Ireland, despite coach Andy Farrell’s impressive restoration job in the second half of the Six Nations.
Farrell was unusually critical of Ireland after their first-round 36-14 loss to France in the Six Nations in February, and they didn’t look impressive during a 2013 win against Italy in Dublin the following week.
But, by round three, they cut England to shreds at Twickenham, winning 42-14, and it will that Ireland team which Joe Schmidt is preparing for in Sydney.
Lions Jameson Gibson-Park and Hugo Keenan present the obvious dangers, but the key man to watch will be giant Ulster No.12 Stuart McCloskey, who might be playing with a chip on his shoulder after never being fully embraced by Schmidt when the coach was in charge of Ireland.
Aside from Dupont’s potential availability, the French have already signalled their intent for the July Tests by naming Bordeaux-Begles stars Maxime Lucu and Mathieu Jalibert in their initial 33-man squad, to be bolstered by nine others after the Top 14 final between Toulouse and Montpellier.
Lucu and Jalibert look destined to start against the All Blacks in Christchurch just hours before the Wallabies-Ireland Test, alongside several other top liners.
Les Bleus appear determined to make a statement in July, which has elevated the importance of the Brisbane Test.
The back-to-back Six Nations champions might not be at full strength, with brilliant winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey rested, but they will be favourites against the Wallabies if Dupont plays.
As for Italy, the days when it could be taken lightly are long gone. They followed up their win against the Wallabies last November by knocking over England and Scotland in the Six Nations.
Not even a lukewarm performance from the Wallabies against Italy in Perth will be enough to get the job done. There are danger signs all over that fixture.
But the beauty of these Tests is that there is no hiding place for the Wallabies. Their progress, or otherwise, is going to be clear at the end of July, and that will help us make sense of a 2025 campaign that had some extreme highs and lows.
No one should expect the Wallabies to blitz their way through July. All of their opponents will be far too credible, organised, and well-coached.
But if the Wallabies finish up with two wins out of three that will be enough for Schmidt to leave on a happy note, and might even persuade the hard-marking Fisher that a golden run at the Rugby World Cup next year is not out of the question.
News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport are sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.
Paul Cully is a rugby columnist for The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.
