The 92-page autopsy of Bill Shorten’s loss to Scott Morrison in 2019 is in some ways the Albanese government’s constitution.
Its authors, Labor veterans Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill, worked closely with Anthony Albanese and campaign chief Paul Erickson after that defeat to lay out a blueprint for success.
Shorten was smashed by a scare campaign on his “big end of town” tax agenda, which included proposals that closely resembled those included in last week’s budget.
The review found: “Labor did not encourage everyday Australians to be envious of the wealthy. But Labor did not adequately acknowledge the legitimate desire of Australians for improved living standards for themselves and their children through their own hard work and initiative.
“Labor should adopt the language of inclusion, recognising the contribution of small and large businesses to economic prosperity.”
Those lessons underpinned Albanese’s big-tent, broad-church political model, which has brought him success and annoyed those who demand a more leftist, socialist agenda. The workers’ party has drawn more affluent families into its coalition, as well as young people hungry for success.
But the backlash over his decision to overhaul the capital gains tax discount for shareholders and business owners, not just property investors, could alienate sections of that coalition.
Labor MPs didn’t expect the level of opposition they received from young people who buy shares to build up wealth. Nor from small business owners – many in migrant communities who have shifted to Labor – who hold to dreams of selling. They have also noted an uptick in negative comments and emails after Albanese did a U-turn on his election pledge to leave negative gearing and capital gains alone.
Albanese has avoided provoking the electorate’s class consciousness to date. He’s also sidestepped “woke” debates that have cruelled centre-left counterparts worldwide. But his “intergenerational equity” budget has created a genuine split.
Some of the concerns raised by tech start-ups are important to the debate on kick-starting productivity growth. They’re easier for Labor to dismiss, however, because not many voters see themselves creating the next Canva.
Harder to manage are the worries, which will play out over months, expressed by independent MP Allegra Spender.
Spender said the new model for taxing gains “really doesn’t work” for many firms such as tourism providers, not just start-ups.
“I don’t think, at the moment, these rules are right,” she said on ABC Radio, admitting that she underestimated the consequences of removing CGT from productive assets.
The previous flat 50 per cent model was credited with fuelling world-leading property prices. The new model to which Spender refers taxes only above-inflation gains.
But the rejig means high-risk, high-growth firms that start with very little money, the domain of younger entrepreneurs, will be taxed more. Lower-growth assets, such as blue-chip bank shares popular in Boomer portfolios, will benefit. In a years-long productivity malaise, businesses are receiving a signal that it will become less attractive to invest.
The meme portraying Albanese as a partner in start-ups is misleading because the 47 per cent number is cited as a government “equity” when what’s meant is a tax. And such a high rate won’t apply to every business, as the videos suggest. A discount will still exist on gains, despite suggestions to the contrary.
But the truth is that a 47 per cent tax rate on some entrepreneurs isn’t the “misinformation” Labor suggests it is.
Teal voters may drift back to the Coalition in the tax battle, but the opposition has no compelling message for people locked out of the system. The absence of any backlash towards Labor’s negative gearing changes shows how unimaginative the opposition has been in its attempt to win younger voters.
Missed in the furore this week are the many Australians who will never invest and appreciate Labor’s attempt to reduce inequality in an economy where the asset-rich get richer and households get smashed by inflation and poor wage growth.
It’s these disenfranchised voters who were front of mind for Albanese and Chalmers when they made the call to break election pledges. After batting away calls to use his 94-seat election haul and go beyond his election mandate last year, Albanese decided to upend the economic status quo.
But by misjudging the fallout, Labor may have worsened the trust deficit among anti-establishment Australians and enlivened a class fight it previously shunned.
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Paul Sakkal is Chief Political Correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and won a Walkley award and the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect via X or email.
