Both WA Labor and the Liberals view the upcoming byelection in the southern suburbs electorate of Secret Harbour as “tough to win” following the sudden resignation of local member Paul Papalia.
Premier Roger Cook announced the speaker of the legislative assembly will liaise with the electoral commissioner on possible dates for a poll in a seat that Labor comfortably won at the last state election in 2025.
The seat was created in 2023 following a redistribution of electoral boundaries and replaced the former seat of Warnbro, which itself was only created in 2008 to replace the previous electorate of Peel.
Technically, Labor is the only party to hold both Warnbro and Secret Harbour, with Papalia the only local member elected to the seat, but the area has long been considered a stronghold for the current government.
However, Cook believes holding the seat in a byelection will be difficult.
“Let’s be very clear. This is going to be tough for Labor,” he said.
“This is going to be really tough. We are farewelling one of the longest, most reliable, and popular local members at a time when a lot of people are doing it tough, struggling with the cost of living.”
WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas said while a decision on a potential party candidate had not been made, he expected the party to challenge for the seat.
“I think there’s been sustained speculation that there might have been a by-election coming, and coming in this particular area,” he said.
“I know that a number of locals in that area have worked hard to ensure that if this opportunity presented, they would be in a position to nominate for pre-selection candidacy, but you can’t do any more than that.
“The process that exists with the Liberal Party, it is always a democratic process. You have to nominate. Nobody has a guaranteed passage, and that applies here as well.”
Cook also recognised the growing rise of One Nation, and foreshadowed that the party would be a fierce competitor in Secret Harbour.
“When you vote for One Nation, you are bringing the chaos of the eastern states to Western Australia,” he said.
“I understand that people have got legitimate concerns about their position at the moment, whether it’s about the cost of living, whether it’s about jobs, but One Nation simply tries to use those legitimate concerns and create division, division by blaming minorities.
“It’s not a solution for WA. We know what we want in Western Australia. We want jobs, we want cost of living measures, we want health, we want housing investment, and only WA Labor can deliver that.”
WA One Nation leader Rod Caddies has previously revealed the seat was in his party’s sights.
“But we all know his attacks on One Nation are self-serving,” Caddies said of the premier, following party leader Pauline Hanson’s whirlwind visit last month.
“He knows that we’re the favourites in Kwinana, he knows we are the favourites in Secret Harbour, and he knows we are the greatest threat to his majority.”
Zempilas also acknowledged the threat of One Nation as his party chased victory in Secret Harbour, but added that the majority of the pressure sat with the premier.
“We expect that One Nation will play a significant part in this byelection, and that doesn’t change anything for us,” Zempilas said.
“We expect to play our part, but we know One Nation are going to be a factor.
“We know who’s most fearful of what’s taking place in Western Australia at the moment – and that is the WA Labor government.”
WA Nationals leader Shane Love said his party had yet to make a formal decision on whether to contest for the seat, despite previously stating a move to target more metropolitan seats.
“The decision on which seats the Nationals WA contest is ultimately one for our state council,” he said.
“What I will say is that Western Australians want politicians who tell it like it is and put common sense first. That’s exactly what the Nationals WA have been doing for more than 110 years.”
The Greens had also not ruled out a run at the seat – but were more concerned about who would replace Papalia as corrective services minister.
Greens leader Brad Pettit said the portfolio was in desperate need of a refresh.
“Hopefully the cabinet reshuffle that follows the resignation of Minister Papalia can provide that much-needed change,” he said.
“The mismanagement of Western Australia’s prison estate under Minister Papalia over the last few years has gone from crisis to crisis.
“This mismanagement has led to worse outcomes for both children and adults entering the justice system, higher rates of recidivism and it has made the prison environment, for both staff and other prisoners, and the community less safe.
“We need someone who is focused on reinvestment, rehabilitation and diversion to take on the challenge of reforming our justice system, not the focus on increasing police powers that we have seen under the current minister.”
