Alex de Minaur is trapped in a vicious cycle of self-castigation.
His sustained excellence across several years – a single-digit world ranking, seven grand slam quarter-finals and 11 titles – not only heightened external expectation, but particularly, his own.
Twelve men made a major final in the past five years, and just half of them won a title at one of tennis’ four biggest events in that period. Only Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud reached multiple finals.
De Minaur desperately wants to be among that group.
The world No.6 has reached the last eight at each of the grand slams, but that record is becoming more of a noose around his neck than a source of a pride, in much the same way as it has for Russia’s Andrey Rublev.
Alcaraz’s injury absence from Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, and de Minaur’s inability to capitalise, has sent the Australian spiralling emotionally. He lost in the third round to Jakub Mensik in Paris in May, and the fourth round to Flavio Cobolli in London on Monday.
On both occasions, not only was Alcaraz – the champion who beat de Minaur in the Australian Open quarter-finals in January – not there, but a raft of upsets meant there was a golden opportunity to go deeper.
De Minaur said all the right things when this masthead asked him about that opportunity last week.
“As much as I would love to just jump a couple of steps and put myself already in that Sunday match [the final]; there are lots of matches and lots of tough moments that I’ve got to get through,” he said.
“Seeds lose. Upsets happen. This sport is unpredictable. It’s not straightforward, so whether you’re ranked higher than your opponent; it really means nothing when you go into the match.”
But it wasn’t just the media who realised he had an extra sniff of breaking new ground.
After losing at Roland-Garros, de Minaur bemoaned missing a “once-in-a-blue-moon” opportunity, and he offered an extended version of that same line after Cobolli beat him in straight sets at Wimbledon in a contest the Australian, on a different day, could have won by the same scoreline.
“You go through moments in your career where you feel that there are opportunities to be taken, to take the next step, to make it to the next level, to become an even better version of yourself,” de Minaur said.
“To fall short constantly, you start doubting yourself, and whether you’re going to be able to break through and take the next step.”
De Minaur is beating himself up right now, and while he keeps getting back up, the mental toll is evident. He admitted after losing from two sets up to Alexander Bublik in the second round at Roland-Garros last year that he was “burnt out”.
Now, de Minaur is speaking about how he is playing with “the weight of the world” on his shoulders. It showed in the biggest moments against Cobolli, who played with the type of freedom de Minaur seemed incapable of.
Two points only minutes apart, in what proved a crucial second-set tie-breaker, summed up their contrasting mindsets.
Serving down 1-2, de Minaur was dominating the ensuing point, but rather than going for the jugular, he played it safe and ended up losing the point.
Then, at three-all, de Minaur threw up a fantastic defensive lob to neutralise the rally, only for Cobolli to spin and spank a forehand winner laced with risk. It was a reward reserved for the bravest of competitors.
It feels like a fork-in-the-road moment.
De Minaur himself said something has to change. He does not feel that change needs to happen with his coaching team, headed by his childhood mentor, Adolfo Gutierrez.
Only de Minaur can make that call, but sometimes it takes something that drastic to deliver different results. For now, the 27-year-old appears likely to resist such a move, which is understandable.
Most players would do anything to have de Minaur’s career, but elite athletes are rarely satisfied. Once they achieve one thing, they start chasing the next.
As he put it pre-tournament: “You work so hard to achieve certain things, and if you don’t keep breaking new ground, it feels like you’re not improving.”
De Minaur is in a challenging spot. He is a genuine tour force, but not viewed as a serious threat to win grand slam titles. Players such as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Cobolli and perhaps even Taylor Fritz are going past him.
There is no shame in any of this.
To most, de Minaur is Australia’s best men’s player since former world No.1 Lleyton Hewitt, although some will argue that is Nick Kyrgios, who has a Wimbledon final to his name and beat all of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray.
The logic on Kyrgios is simple: an athlete’s highs are often what they are best remembered for, and his have indisputably been higher than de Minaur’s.
No one works harder than de Minaur, and time is still on his side, but it is time for action over hearing how disappointed he is again.
Marc McGowan travelled to London with Tennis Australia’s support.
News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport are sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.
