A north Queensland MP’s seat will be abolished for a third time, while a Labor leadership contender’s electorate will, on paper, flip to the LNP in an electoral map redraw the opposition has labelled “corrupted” by the Crisafulli government.
Independent analysis of the first redistribution since 2017 has confirmed seat boundary changes, subtractions and additions will leave the LNP better off by two seats, based on 2024 election results, with Labor and Katter’s Australian Party losing one each.
Despite Premier David Crisafulli suggesting both new seats in the fast-growing south-east were in “Labor heartland”, one in Caboolture will be notionally LNP. Labor’s Gold Coast enclave of Gaven, held by shadow attorney-general Meaghan Scanlon, will also flip blue.
And KAP MP Shane Knuth, a former LNP and Nationals member for Dalrymple and Charters Towers, will now need to navigate his seat being scrapped in a redistribution for a third time, after the Queensland Redistribution Commission agreed with an LNP suggestion to abolish the electorate of Hill.
“The QRC has made a shocking decision that weakens north Queensland’s voice in parliament and sends yet another seat to south-east Queensland,” Knuth said.
“The LNP could have legislated to increase the number of seats in parliament. That would have accommodated south-east Queensland’s population growth without robbing north Queensland of one of its valuable parliamentary voices.”
A second new seat, Springfield, will absorb some of the rapid population growth around Ipswich. On paper, it will likely be held by Labor after the 2028 election, during which the new electoral map will be used.
While the number of seats is up to parliament to legislate, the commission’s final report, published on Monday after a year-long consultation process, noted such changes were likely to be needed in the “not too distant future” to avoid the loss of one of the state’s four sprawling regional seats.
KAP leader Robbie Katter said the LNP had influenced the commission to abolish one of his party’s two seats and shift boundaries to benefit Resources Minister Dale Last, while making his own expansive seat of Flinders (formerly Traeger) even larger.
The commission is made up of State Development director-general John Sosso, Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen, and former judge Gregory Koppenol as chair. Sosso’s selection by the government has riled the Labor opposition, and others.
Tony Fitzgerald, who led the landmark Fitzgerald inquiry in the late 1980s, warned last year of a return to the “bad old days” of “biased electoral boundaries” after Sosso’s appointment. The LNP has defended his selection.
On Monday, Opposition Leader Steven Miles accused the government of having “corrupted” the process with a “very partisan commissioner” that meant the boundaries set out this week will “forever be questioned”.
Miles said Scanlon was an important member of the Labor team, which would work through the implications for her regarding the 2028 election.
Election analyst Ben Raue, writing in his blog, The Tally Room, on Monday, questioned the commission’s explanation of which seats were, in fact, new or abolished around Ipswich and Brisbane’s south.
But Raue confirmed the new seat around Ipswich was notionally Labor, and the seat of Caboolture notionally LNP – as was Scanlon’s seat of Gaven based on boundary changes.
Writing in his blog, The Poll Bludger, of the earlier draft redistribution, analyst William Bowe’s estimated the two-party-preferred result in Macalister suggested the redrawn seat – to be renamed Beenleigh and held by Labor’s Melissa McMahon – could also fall to the LNP by a margin of 0.4 per cent.
Raue’s estimate has McMahon’s margin trimmed from 1.9 per cent to 0.7 per cent.
On Tuesday morning, Crisafulli repeated suggestions that both new seats were in “Labor Party heartland”.
Asked on Monday if he felt the redrawn electoral map would help or hurt the LNP, he said the decision was made by the independent commission.
“Ultimately, what we have to do is, whatever the boundaries look like, we have to go to the people of Queensland and say this is what we spoke to you about before the last election, this is how we have sought to address those issues, this is our vision for the future,” he said.
“And who draws up those boundaries, and where … people fall on one side of the line. I don’t think many Queenslanders will be focused on that.”
Asked whether the government would consider the commission’s suggestions, including an expansion of the number of MPs in parliament, a spokesperson for Attorney-General Deb Frecklington said its focus was on “delivering more police, not more politicians”.
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Matt Dennien is a reporter at Brisbane Times covering state politics, parliament and the public sector. He has previously worked for newspapers in Tasmania and Brisbane community radio station 4ZZZ. Contact him securely on Signal @mattdennien.15Connect via email.
