Pauline Hanson’s political surge may have peaked, with her likeability falling and primary support for One Nation edging down to its lowest level in three months even though a growing number believe the right-wing party could win the next election.
The exclusive Resolve Political Monitor shows that through April, as America and Israel launched their war against Iran, support for One Nation dropped by two points as voters made a small return to the major parties.
The same poll also reveals the changes Australians are making because of the war’s impact on petrol prices with almost four-in-five adjusting their driving habits or abandoning trips. More than one in four people also said the cost-of-living crunch meant they were changing their spending patterns.
Conducted by Resolve from April 13 to 18, the poll of 1807 people showed primary support for One Nation eased to 22 per cent. It was the lowest support for the party since January when it was 18 per cent. Despite the decline, it is still sharply up on the 6.4 per cent that One Nation achieved at last year’s election.
Support for the Coalition lifted one point to 23 per cent, the level it was soon after Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader in February. The Coalition once again edges One Nation on primary support, but the one-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error.
Despite the improvement, the Coalition’s primary vote is down almost nine points from last year’s disastrous election result.
Labor’s primary vote has returned to 32 per cent, after dipping to 29 per cent in March. It remains short of the 34.6 per cent that Anthony Albanese achieved at the May election.
Pollster Jim Reed said the failure for a big lift in One Nation’s support may be due to voters looking at issues that are not traditional drivers of interest for Hanson, such as the economy and international affairs.
“We may have reached ‘peak Pauline’, at least for the time being,” he said.
While the Coalition’s support has barely changed since Taylor took over as leader, he remains positive with voters with a net likeability rating of plus 16. By contrast, Anthony Albanese has a rating of minus 12, a level that has been constant since February.
Albanese has just a single point lead over Taylor as preferred prime minister, 33 to 32 per cent, with 34 per cent undecided.
Thirty-seven per cent of those surveyed rate Albanese’s performance as good, his highest level since the start of the year, while 52 per cent rated it poor. Taylor’s performance was rated as good by 41 per cent, well above the 26 per cent who rated it poor. But a third of voters are still unsure about the Liberal leader, while just 10 per cent are unsure about the prime minister.
There are positive signs for new Nationals leader Matt Canavan. He registered a plus eight likeability rating, putting him only behind Taylor, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie and One Nation convert Barnaby Joyce (both at plus 10).
His popularity has helped the overall standing of the Nationals. Its net popularity has shot up from minus five in February to plus seven in this most recent poll.
Pauline Hanson suffered a four-point drop in her net likeability to plus six. She registered plus 15 in January.
Highlighting the impact of the fight on the right of politics between the Coalition and One Nation, at a two-party preferred level Labor maintains a 55-45 lead, which is what it achieved at last year’s election.
But the survey also revealed voters believe One Nation will be an electoral force at the next election, which is due by May 2028.
Asked who they expect will win the election, 38 per cent believe it will be Labor, 22 per cent said it will be the Coalition while 16 per cent expect it to be “someone else”. That someone else is One Nation.
The increase in support for the government came despite cost-of-living pressures unleashed by the war against Iran, which has pushed global oil prices to almost $US120 a barrel.
Keeping the cost of living low was rated by 42 per cent as the single most important policy priority, easily eclipsing every other issue, such as housing (8 per cent), immigration (6 per cent) and healthcare (7 per cent).
Australians are taking their own actions to ease the cost pressures caused by the surge in petrol prices, with 79 per cent saying they had changed their driving habits.
The most common adjustment has been for people to drive less (58 per cent of those surveyed). Low- income earners (67 per cent), retirees and people in rural or regional areas (both 64 per cent) were the most common groups to put away their car keys.
One in five said they did not make a trip over the Easter holidays they otherwise would have, while 19 per cent said they were using public transport, walking or riding a bicycle to work. On Sunday, the Victorian state government announced it was extending free public transport for another month and then halving prices for the rest of the year.
In an important indication to the Reserve Bank that high petrol prices are having a broad impact on consumers, more than a quarter of people (27 per cent) said they had reduced purchases on other goods and services.
Just 21 per cent said they had not changed, of which the most likely were high-income earners (25 per cent).
Reed said there had also been an increase in people varying their work habits.
“We do find more people can work from home than was the case during COVID, suggesting the world of work has changed somewhat in recent years,” he said.
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Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.
